Exporter Feasibility Simulator
Models the potential profitability of entering a new market — accounting for tariffs, shipping costs and average local market pricing — so you can compare several target markets side by side before you commit. Everything is computed in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere.
This is the same product being tested across every market below — your factory-gate or FOB cost, before freight, duty or local margin.
Target Markets
The three markets below are illustrative starting examples — replace the names and figures with your own researched product cost, tariff schedule, freight quote and local retail pricing.
Profit Margin by Market
How This Is Calculated
Landed Cost = (FOB Cost + Shipping) × (1 + Tariff% + Other Import%). Achievable Price = Avg. Local Retail Price × (1 − Distributor/Retail Margin%) — this nets out the cut a local distributor or retailer keeps, since an exporter rarely captures the full shelf price. Profit / Unit = Achievable Price − Landed Cost, and Margin% expresses that profit as a share of the achievable price. Highly Feasible ≥ 25%, Feasible ≥ 15%, Marginal ≥ 0%, Not Feasible < 0%.
This is a planning-stage screening model, not a quotation — it excludes financing costs, currency risk, marketing/registration spend and payment terms. Confirm tariff schedules and freight quotes with your broker/forwarder before committing. Need the exact landed cost for one shipment? Use the Landed Cost Estimator. Pricing in a foreign currency? Use the Currency Converter.
How an export price builds up to the shelf price
A product that leaves the factory at one price reaches the consumer at several times that price. Each step adds a cost or a margin, and each step is calculated on the price before it, so the percentages compound:
- Ex-works (EXW) cost — production cost plus the exporter's margin.
- FOB — plus packing, inland transport and export clearance to the ship.
- CIF — plus sea freight and insurance to the destination port.
- Landed cost — plus import duty, port charges, customs brokerage and inland delivery. Most countries charge duty on the CIF value; the United States charges it on the FOB value.
- Wholesale and retail price — plus the importer's or distributor's margin and the retailer's markup, and VAT or sales tax where it applies.
Formula: landed cost = CIF × (1 + duty rate) + fixed import charges. Retail price = landed cost × (1 + importer margin) × (1 + retail markup).
Example market assumptions in the simulator
| Market | Freight & insurance | Import duty | Other costs | Importer margin | Retail markup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany (EU) | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5% | 35% | 45% |
| Brazil | 6% | 18% | 8% | 40% | 55% |
| United Arab Emirates | 4% | 5% | 4% | 30% | 40% |
Illustrative starting values, as a percentage of the relevant price. Replace them with real quotes, the actual tariff for your HS code and your buyer's margins.
Reading the result
- Price gap. If the simulated shelf price is well above competing products, look for costs to cut — a larger shipment, a lower-duty origin under a trade agreement, or a shorter distribution chain.
- Break-even volume. Fixed costs ÷ (unit price − variable cost per unit) gives the number of units needed to cover fixed costs such as certification, samples and trade fairs.
- Currency. A 10% move in the exchange rate can erase the exporter's margin; see the currency converter.
For a full cost calculation with freight, duty and VAT, use the landed cost estimator; look up duty-relevant HS codes in the HS code explorer.
Frequently asked questions
Is import duty calculated on the FOB or CIF value?
Most countries, including EU members, calculate duty on the CIF value (goods plus freight and insurance). The United States and a few others use the FOB value.
Why is the retail price so much higher than the export price?
Freight, duty, the importer's margin, the retailer's markup and sales tax are each added on top of the previous price, so the percentages multiply rather than add.
What is a typical importer margin?
It varies widely by product and channel — from single digits for bulk commodities to 30% or more for branded consumer goods. Ask potential buyers or use market research for your sector.
How do I find the import duty for my product?
Classify the product under the HS code, then look up the destination's tariff schedule, checking whether a trade agreement gives a lower preferential rate with a certificate of origin.
What is the difference between a markup and a margin?
A markup is a percentage of cost; a margin is a percentage of the selling price. A 50% markup on cost equals a 33.3% margin on price.